Election Day musings: overall the US is actually better off than it was 4 years ago, but will be much WORSE off if 45 becomes 47

We are in the waning hours of Election Day in the Divided States of America, and it's no exaggeration to say that if American democracy has any hope whatsoever of surviving, Kamala will be our Number 47. Unfortunately, if we're to believe the polls and the pundits (and there are reasons to be skeptical of both, but we can't ignore them), Dolt 45 has an alarmingly good chance of winning -- and then there goes the country, and along with it much of the rest of the free world.

And I think most of us also know that when all is said and done, even if Kamala were to score what in a sane political milieu would be considered a landslide victory, the vicious and well-organized MAGA forces will do everything in their power, both inside and outside of the law, to overturn the will of the American people. So we need to brace ourselves for the possibility that January 6, 2021, was just a rehearsal.

"Are you better off now?"
One of the constant themes of the Trump campaign has centered around the loaded question, first posed by the late Ronald Reagan during the 1980 presidential debate with Jimmy Carter: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Of course the MAGA faithful have shouted that they are not, not, NOT better off, citing soaring food prices, expensive gas, imaginary "open borders," and an equally imaginary violent crime tsunami as evidence that the Biden/Harris administration has brought the country to ruin. The devotees fondly recall the halcyon daze of the first Trump reign, when food and gas were cheap, the border was totally secure, and law and order prevailed.

Accordingly they long for the Second Coming of their Cheeto Jeezus, who, they imagine, will swoop in and fix every aspect of the deep national malaise, because of course, he alone can fix it. I can't help but think about the rooftop party scene in the 1996 movie Independence Day; that scene, as I've mentioned before, is the perfect metaphor for hopeful Trump supporters, who should in reality be very careful what they wish for. They may think he's a known quantity, but they could be in for some very unpleasant surprises under the Trump 2.0 operating system.

Meanwhile, people with a much less cloudy rear view mirror counter the "we were better off four years ago" mantra with fond memories of makeshift mortuaries and big trucks stacked with the bodies of COVID victims, endless lines at food banks, and bitter battles over toilet paper and hand sanitizer. Good times, good times.

MAGA cognitive bias has driven this election
I believe that apart from their abject worship of their orange god, there are two forms of cognitive bias that make MAGAs so disconnected from reality -- causing them to believe that things are horrific now but were a virtual paradise under Trump, and will be again upon his Second Coming. These biases have been cynically and relentlessly fueled by Trump's increasingly unhinged rhetoric and republican messaging in general.

1. Negativity bias
Granted, a majority of Americans report feeling "worse off" than they were four years ago, at least from the perspective of personal well-being, which seems to be guided by their perception of the US economy. This is according to a September 2024 Gallup poll, the results of which were posted on the Gallup site on October 18, 2024. But, but, but...

The higher-than-usual percentage of U.S. adults who say they are worse off this year is largely owing to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to say this than opponents of the incumbent president’s party had been in prior election years. Likewise, the higher-than-usual percentage of “better off” responses in 2020, when Donald Trump was in office, was attributable to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to give that response than supporters of the incumbent president’s party did in prior election years.

So there's that. In any case, Americans' general lack of economic confidence is at odds with the fact that the economy is actually booming. And it is this lack of confidence that appears to be one of the main reasons Trump supporters give for being Trump supporters.

It's not just the economy with the MAGAs, of course. Larger culture-war issues are a big factor too, and there again the negativity bias really comes through, with Trumpists blaming Biden/Harris for what they see as the disintegration of decent society into an immoral, godless hellscape. The trans folks are taking over our schools, forcibly gender-affirming our innocent children and destroying school sports! The brown and black criminals are flooding into the country from prisons all over the world, and occupying our beautiful cities! They're eating the cats and dogs! And it's all Kamala Harris' fault!

Yesterday, on a shuttle bus on my way back home from visiting my husband at the VA hospital in Houston, I had an extended conversation with three male veterans ranging in age from mid-60s to early 80s. The four of us were getting along famously, sharing an amiable exchange about this and that. I am proud to say that even after the conversation turned, perhaps inevitably, to politics, it remained amiable -- no doubt because I kept my mouth shut at crucial moments during the exchange.

I hasten to say that I have nothing but respect for these men, who served their country willingly and are now receiving well-earned treatment for various medical conditions, some of which are service-connected. They deserve every benefit they receive, and so much more. (Unfortunately there's a very good chance that under Trump reign they will lose many or in some cases most of those benefits.)

Our gabfest took a political turn when one of the guys mentioned that the next day was going to be Election Day. Another one asked the rest of us if we'd voted yet, and we all said yes, we'd taken advantage of early voting. Having been privy to previous political conversations on the VA bus, I was kind of hoping that the conversation would end there, but no: one of the men said something about hoping that it would be a free and fair election, but that he had his doubts because of all of the "illegals" who were presumably being allowed to vote. The other guys expressed their agreement, and then they seemed to be waiting for me to say something.

I decided it best to remain as neutral as possible, so I said, "No matter what the results are and how clear they seem to be, there are going to be people who dispute those results. I only hope it doesn't get too ugly. I think that above all, we should all be hoping and praying for peace." (Being a devout agnostic, I'm normally not a praying person myself, but they all seemed to be, and I'm not above playing to the room if it doesn't go against my deepest held beliefs, or lack thereof. Apparently I hit the right note, because they all nodded in agreement with my statement.)

That would have been a fine ending to the conversation, but... no. One of the men said, "I think ABOVE ALL, we need to return this country to being one nation, UNDER GOD, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all." The other two nodded vigorously in agreement and one of them piped up, "And it definitely HASN'T been that for the past four years."

And then they were off and running, talking about how awful the economy is because egg and meat prices are so high and whatnot, and how dire the border situation is. Their consensus was that the most important issues in this election are the border and the economy. They were having a fine time griping about Democratic policies, laughing bitterly about things such as the Green New Deal, the proposed banning of gas stoves, and, of course, sky-high food and gas prices, all of which are apparently part of a demonic Democratic plot to destroy the republic.

One man said that the Democrats even want to impose high taxes or fines on cow farts, a reference to the decades-long controversy over methane emissions, which are considered to be a big contributor to the climate crisis. Of course the guys all guffawed about this, but I remained silent, not pointing out that they were drawing on a distorted and over-simplified narrative, and that Congress has consistently blocked methane reporting regulations for years and years (and you can't tax or fine what isn't reported). Moreover, there is bipartisan support for legislation that encourages ranchers and farmers to voluntarily measure and report methane emissions. Plus there's ongoing research to find ways to reduce the cow-fart problem.

The conversation went on for a while in that vein, with the three vets riffing on how awful America had become during the last four years because of Democratic policies. And I stayed quiet for the most part. Why? To keep the peace, of course. It would have served no purpose to express my strongly dissenting opinions, especially since all of the men had already cast their votes.

But clearly, my new friends were suffering from negativity bias.

2. Euphoric recall
The other form of cognitive bias that seems to guide the MAGA mindset is something known as euphoric recall, which as a newly recovering alcoholic decades ago, I was warned could lead to relapse. Euphoric recall in the recovery context refers to a tendency, brought on by time and distance, to recall only the good things about one's drinking or drugging days, while glossing over the bad.

I took the warning to heart. I wasn't much of a praying person back then, either, but I clearly remember offering up a prayer to the Great Whatever, saying, "Please, no matter what happens, never, ever let me forget how bad it was." I wanted never to forget the horrible hangovers I had every day, that felt like a combination of jet lag and flu. I wanted never to forget the social gatherings that were ruined because of my drinking myself nearly into oblivion. I wanted never to forget the few times I might have come close to seriously or perhaps even fatally overdosing on alcohol, and was saved only by the intervention of caring friends.

And indeed, I never forgot any of that. I guess the prayer worked, because I'm still sober today.

Every one of us is prone to euphoric recall, because that's just the way our brains are wired. But MAGAts' euphoric recall, coupled with their negativity bias, could very well push our country over the edge.

My brother told me about a guy he recently met and with whom he'd struck up a conversation about a mutual friend of theirs. My brother, who is emphatically not a Trumper, mentioned to the guy that their mutual friend is. Well, it turned out that my brother's new acquaintance is also a Trumper. In trying to make his case for his support, all the guy could come up with was that gas was cheaper under Trump.

I've noticed that is a common refrain from Trumpists. But their memories are a bit distorted. A July 2024 piece on the Forbes site takes a closer and much more realistic look at this issue.

There are reasonable explanations for the movements of gasoline prices over the past 30 years. Few of those movements involve actions taken by a president...

...Although Trump is often credited with low gasoline prices, the average price during Trump’s first three years in office was higher than during Obama’s last two years in office. But this isn’t the general impression people seem to have. One shouldn’t read too much into this, as there were macro factors – like strong global demand – putting upward pressure on prices...

...Some fondly recall $2.00/gallon of gasoline, but they forget that it’s because there was little demand for gasoline since most people stopped traveling [because of the COVID pandemic]. To the extent you give credit to Trump for low gasoline prices, you would need to account for which actions of his caused gasoline prices to fall. The stay-at-home orders? Yes, if you want to credit him for that, this was a major factor in the drop in gasoline prices.

But as soon as those orders ended, gasoline prices began to climb. In the last eight months of Trump’s presidency — following the decline to $2.00/gallon, gasoline prices climbed nearly 25%. The increase that began in the summer of 2020 continued throughout 2021.

Biden’s energy policies didn’t help, but supply chain disruptions made the biggest impact on gasoline prices during Biden’s presidency. (For a thorough comparison of the energy policies of President Trump and President Biden, see this month’s cover story in Shale Magazine).

The truth is that gasoline prices did fall sharply during the last year of Trump’s presidency. But that drop happened because of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, prices had begun to steeply climb before Trump left office in January 2021. Thus, those who credit President Trump’s energy policies for the drop in gasoline prices are presenting a misleading picture at best.

Indeed.

So much is at stake
There are of course many other domestic issues at stake besides gas prices (and food prices, and the border, and crime), not to mention grave foreign policy issues. There is so much riding on this election, and it's both saddening and alarming to me that so many people are still embracing Trump, much like the foolish lady with the snake in the song that Trump so loves to quote as a way of demeaning immigrants. But the fact is that masses of folks are still pinning their hopes on him, and my fervent hope is that Blue voters will turn out in record numbers to remove the ugly orange stain from our political landscape. (Even then, of course, the battle will be far from over; Trump might exit the main stage, but Trumpism has taken a vicious hold on this country. The work will not be done; it will just be beginning.)

By many objective measures, our country really is much better off than it was four years ago. Subjective measures are another matter; lots of folks, including me, still aren't feeling the results of that better-off status, and there are still serious problems, such as income inequality, lack of health care access, and housing insecurity. But Kamala Harris has expressed a willingness to address these problems, whereas Trump has done little more than vow revenge on his enemies, promise further tax cuts for billionaires, and outline his ambitions to be a brutal dictator like some of the tyrants he so admires. The choice should be clear.

As I'm wrapping up this post, the polls are already closing in some parts of the country. It will be many hours and perhaps several days, or maybe even longer, before we know the results, and then it will a long, long trek towards certification. I'm on pins and needles, and you probably are too. I don't expect my ramblings to change anyone's vote, but I did want to make my voice heard in this remote little corner of the blogosphere.

So now I'm off to watch the election returns, without the aid of stiff drinks or, for that matter, human company to make it a little easier. I'll see you again soon.

Before you leave...
This has been, through what is no apparent fault of her own (excluding, perhaps karmic matters that are quite beyond her ability to comprehend), a nightmare of a year for the ruler of this Whirled. Money, alas, cannot make the nightmare go away, but it can make it easier to bear. Now more than ever, donations are urgently needed and profoundly appreciated. Here are some ways to do it:

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