We are in the waning hours of Election Day in the Divided
States of America, and it's no exaggeration to say that if
American democracy has any hope whatsoever of surviving, Kamala will be our Number 47.
Unfortunately, if we're to believe the polls and the pundits (and
there are reasons to be skeptical of both, but we can't ignore
them), Dolt 45 has an alarmingly good
chance of winning -- and then there goes the country, and
along with it much of the rest of the free world.
And I think most of us also know that when all is said and done,
even if Kamala were to score what in a sane political milieu would be
considered a landslide victory, the vicious and well-organized
MAGA forces will do everything in their power, both inside and
outside of the law, to overturn the will of the American people. So we need to brace ourselves for the possibility that
January 6, 2021, was just a rehearsal.
"Are you better off now?"
One of the constant themes of the Trump campaign
has centered around the loaded question, first posed by the late Ronald Reagan during the 1980 presidential
debate with Jimmy Carter: "Are you
better off than you were four years ago?" Of course the MAGA
faithful have shouted that they are not, not, NOT better off, citing
soaring food prices, expensive gas, imaginary "open
borders," and an equally imaginary violent crime tsunami as
evidence that the Biden/Harris administration has brought the
country to ruin. The devotees fondly recall the halcyon daze of
the first Trump reign, when food and gas were cheap, the border
was totally secure, and law and order prevailed.
Accordingly they long for the Second Coming of their Cheeto
Jeezus, who, they imagine, will swoop in and fix every aspect of
the deep national malaise, because of course, he alone can fix
it. I can't help but think about the rooftop
party scene in the 1996 movie Independence
Day; that scene, as I've mentioned before, is the perfect
metaphor for hopeful Trump supporters, who should in reality be very
careful what they wish for. They may think he's a known quantity,
but they could be in for some very unpleasant surprises under the
Trump 2.0 operating system.
Meanwhile, people with a much less cloudy rear view mirror counter
the "we were better off four years ago" mantra with
fond memories of makeshift mortuaries and big trucks stacked with
the bodies of COVID victims, endless lines at food banks, and
bitter battles over toilet paper and hand sanitizer. Good times,
good times.
MAGA cognitive bias has driven
this election
I believe that apart from their abject worship of
their orange god, there are two forms of cognitive bias that make
MAGAs so disconnected from reality -- causing them to believe
that things are horrific now but were a virtual paradise under
Trump, and will be again upon his Second Coming. These biases
have been cynically and relentlessly fueled by Trump's
increasingly unhinged rhetoric and republican messaging in
general.
1. Negativity bias
Granted, a majority of Americans report feeling
"worse off" than they were four years ago, at least
from the perspective of personal well-being, which seems to be
guided by their perception of the US economy. This is according
to a September 2024 Gallup poll,
the results of which were posted on the Gallup site on October
18, 2024. But, but, but...
The higher-than-usual percentage of U.S. adults who say they are worse off this year is largely owing to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to say this than opponents of the incumbent president’s party had been in prior election years. Likewise, the higher-than-usual percentage of “better off” responses in 2020, when Donald Trump was in office, was attributable to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to give that response than supporters of the incumbent president’s party did in prior election years.
So there's that. In any case, Americans'
general lack of economic confidence is at odds with the fact that
the economy is actually booming. And it is this lack of
confidence that appears to be one of the main reasons Trump
supporters give for being Trump supporters.
It's not just the economy with the MAGAs, of
course. Larger culture-war issues are a big factor too, and there
again the negativity bias really comes through, with Trumpists
blaming Biden/Harris for what they see as the disintegration of
decent society into an immoral, godless hellscape. The trans
folks are taking over our schools, forcibly gender-affirming our
innocent children and destroying school sports! The brown and
black criminals are flooding into the country from prisons all
over the world, and occupying our beautiful cities! They're
eating the cats and dogs! And it's all Kamala Harris' fault!
Yesterday, on a shuttle bus on my way back home from visiting my
husband at the VA hospital in Houston, I had an extended
conversation with three male veterans ranging in age from mid-60s
to early 80s. The four of us were getting along famously, sharing
an amiable exchange about this and that. I am proud to say that
even after the conversation turned, perhaps inevitably, to
politics, it remained amiable -- no doubt because I kept
my mouth shut at crucial moments during the exchange.
I hasten to say that I have nothing but respect
for these men, who served their country willingly and are now
receiving well-earned treatment for various medical conditions,
some of which are service-connected. They deserve every benefit
they receive, and so much more. (Unfortunately there's a very
good chance that under Trump reign they will lose many or in some cases most of those benefits.)
Our gabfest took a political turn when one of the guys mentioned
that the next day was going to be Election Day. Another one asked
the rest of us if we'd voted yet, and we all said yes, we'd taken
advantage of early voting. Having been privy to previous
political conversations on the VA bus, I was kind of hoping that
the conversation would end there, but no: one of the men said
something about hoping that it would be a free and fair election, but
that he had his doubts because of all of the "illegals"
who were presumably being allowed to vote. The other guys
expressed their agreement, and then they seemed to be waiting for
me to say something.
I decided it best to remain as neutral as possible, so I said,
"No matter what the results are and how clear they seem to
be, there are going to be people who dispute those results. I
only hope it doesn't get too ugly. I think that above all, we
should all be hoping and praying for peace." (Being a devout
agnostic, I'm normally not a praying person myself, but they all
seemed to be, and I'm not above playing to the room if it doesn't
go against my deepest held beliefs, or lack thereof. Apparently I
hit the right note, because they all nodded in agreement with my
statement.)
That would have been a fine ending to the conversation,
but... no. One of the men said, "I think ABOVE ALL, we need
to return this country to being one nation, UNDER GOD, indivisible, with
liberty and justice for all." The other two nodded
vigorously in agreement and one of them piped up, "And it
definitely HASN'T been that for the past four years."
And then they were off and running, talking about how awful the
economy is because egg and meat prices are so high and whatnot,
and how dire the border situation is. Their consensus was that
the most important issues in this election are the border and the
economy. They were having a fine time griping about Democratic
policies, laughing bitterly about things such as the Green New
Deal, the proposed banning of gas stoves, and, of course,
sky-high food and gas prices, all of which are apparently part of a demonic Democratic plot to destroy the republic.
One man said that the Democrats even want to impose high taxes or
fines on cow farts, a reference to the decades-long controversy
over methane emissions, which are considered to be a big
contributor to the climate crisis. Of course the guys all
guffawed about this, but I remained silent, not pointing out that
they were drawing on a distorted and over-simplified
narrative, and that Congress has
consistently blocked methane reporting regulations for years and
years (and you can't tax or fine what isn't reported). Moreover,
there is bipartisan support for legislation that encourages
ranchers and farmers to voluntarily measure and report
methane emissions. Plus there's ongoing
research to find ways to reduce the cow-fart problem.
The conversation went on for a while in that vein,
with the three vets riffing on how awful America had become
during the last four years because of Democratic policies. And I
stayed quiet for the most part. Why? To keep the peace, of
course. It would have served no purpose to express my strongly
dissenting opinions, especially since all of the men had already
cast their votes.
But clearly, my new friends were suffering from negativity bias.
2. Euphoric recall
The other form of cognitive bias that seems to
guide the MAGA mindset is something known as euphoric recall, which as a
newly recovering alcoholic decades ago, I was warned could lead to relapse.
Euphoric recall in the recovery context refers to a tendency,
brought on by time and distance, to recall only the good things
about one's drinking or drugging days, while glossing over the
bad.
I took the warning to heart. I wasn't much of a praying person
back then, either, but I clearly remember offering up a prayer to
the Great Whatever, saying, "Please, no matter what happens,
never, ever let me forget how bad it was." I wanted never to
forget the horrible hangovers I had every day, that felt like a
combination of jet lag and flu. I wanted never to forget the
social gatherings that were ruined because of my drinking myself
nearly into oblivion. I wanted never to forget the few times I
might have come close to seriously or perhaps even fatally overdosing
on alcohol, and was saved only by the intervention of caring
friends.
And indeed, I never forgot any of that. I guess the prayer
worked, because I'm still sober today.
Every one of us is prone to euphoric recall, because that's just
the way our brains are wired. But MAGAts' euphoric recall,
coupled with their negativity bias, could very well push our
country over the edge.
My brother told me about a guy he recently met and with whom he'd
struck up a conversation about a mutual friend of theirs. My
brother, who is emphatically not a Trumper, mentioned to the guy
that their mutual friend is. Well, it turned out that my
brother's new acquaintance is also a Trumper. In trying to make
his case for his support, all the guy could come up with was that
gas was cheaper under Trump.
I've noticed that is a common refrain from Trumpists. But their
memories are a bit distorted. A July 2024 piece on the Forbes site takes a closer and much more realistic look at this
issue.
There are reasonable explanations for the movements of gasoline prices over the past 30 years. Few of those movements involve actions taken by a president...
...Although Trump is often credited with low gasoline prices, the average price during Trump’s first three years in office was higher than during Obama’s last two years in office. But this isn’t the general impression people seem to have. One shouldn’t read too much into this, as there were macro factors – like strong global demand – putting upward pressure on prices...
...Some fondly recall $2.00/gallon of gasoline, but they forget that it’s because there was little demand for gasoline since most people stopped traveling [because of the COVID pandemic]. To the extent you give credit to Trump for low gasoline prices, you would need to account for which actions of his caused gasoline prices to fall. The stay-at-home orders? Yes, if you want to credit him for that, this was a major factor in the drop in gasoline prices.
But as soon as those orders ended, gasoline prices began to climb. In the last eight months of Trump’s presidency — following the decline to $2.00/gallon, gasoline prices climbed nearly 25%. The increase that began in the summer of 2020 continued throughout 2021.
Biden’s energy policies didn’t help, but supply chain disruptions made the biggest impact on gasoline prices during Biden’s presidency. (For a thorough comparison of the energy policies of President Trump and President Biden, see this month’s cover story in Shale Magazine).
The truth is that gasoline prices did fall sharply during the last year of Trump’s presidency. But that drop happened because of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, prices had begun to steeply climb before Trump left office in January 2021. Thus, those who credit President Trump’s energy policies for the drop in gasoline prices are presenting a misleading picture at best.
Indeed.
So much is at stake
There are of course many other domestic issues at stake besides
gas prices (and food prices, and the border, and crime), not to
mention grave foreign policy issues. There is so much riding on
this election, and it's both saddening and alarming to me that so
many people are still embracing Trump, much like the foolish lady with the snake in the song that Trump
so loves to quote as a way of demeaning
immigrants. But the fact is that masses of folks are still pinning their
hopes on him, and my fervent hope is that Blue voters will turn
out in record numbers to remove the ugly orange stain from our
political landscape. (Even then, of course, the battle will be
far from over; Trump might exit the main stage, but Trumpism has taken
a vicious hold on this country. The work will not be done; it
will just be beginning.)
By many objective measures, our country really is much better off than it was four years ago. Subjective measures are another matter; lots of folks,
including me, still aren't feeling the results of that better-off
status, and there are still serious problems, such as income
inequality, lack of health care access, and housing insecurity.
But Kamala Harris has expressed a willingness to address these
problems, whereas Trump has done little more than vow revenge on
his enemies, promise further tax cuts for billionaires, and
outline his ambitions to be a brutal dictator like some of the
tyrants he so admires. The choice should be clear.
As I'm wrapping up this post, the polls are already closing in
some parts of the country. It will be many hours and perhaps
several days, or maybe even longer, before we know the results,
and then it will a long, long trek towards certification. I'm on
pins and needles, and you probably are too. I don't expect my
ramblings to change anyone's vote, but I did want to make my
voice heard in this remote little corner of the blogosphere.
So now I'm off to watch the election returns, without the aid of
stiff drinks or, for that matter, human company to make it a
little easier. I'll see you again soon.
Before you leave...
This has been, through what is no apparent fault of her own
(excluding, perhaps karmic matters that are quite beyond her
ability to comprehend), a nightmare of a year for the ruler of
this Whirled. Money, alas, cannot make the nightmare go away, but
it can make it easier to bear. Now more than ever, donations are
urgently needed and profoundly appreciated. Here are some ways to
do it:
- New: Venmo -- username @Connie-Schmidt-42. Here is a direct link to the Venmo page.
- New: PayPal -- Here is a direct link to Cosmic Connie's PayPal page.
- Old but still good: You can click on the "Donate" icon that currently appears on the right-hand side of every page of this blog on the Web version. There's also a donation link at the end of many of my older blog posts. In the case of both the icon and the links on the older posts, this is also a PayPal link, but it references the email account of Cosmic Connie's husband, RevRon -- which is cool, because it all ultimately goes to the same place.
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